Top Five Sneakiest Breakout Candidates to Watch in 2022-23

The NHL is stuffed to the gills with bright, young talent right now. New stars are born every week it seems, and guys like Trevor Zegras, Auston Matthews and the like overshadow the rest with their showmanship and super-stardom. All the same, every year there are players who explode each season, leaving many wondering, 'who is this kid and where did he come from?'

In 2021-22, guys like Tage Thompson, Troy Terry, and Jesper Bratt each more than doubled their production from the previous season; Terry more than tripled his, and Thompson nearly quintupled (!) his total of 14 points in 2020-21. While these players don't come from 'nowhere,' their sudden explosion in productivity comes as a surprise to many who either can't read between the lines or simply do not receive as much exposure to a given player. Therefore, it is a fun exercise to predict who next year's breakout players will be.

So, I'm going to examine five players poised to beat their 2021-22 totals, whether it's because of increased opportunity, regression to the mean, a contract year, or all three. Let's get to it.

5. Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes

It is hard to imagine a 40-point rookie being poised for a 'breakout' season, but Jarvis' underlying impacts last season were incredible. And his position only improved this summer with the Canes' additions of Max Pacioretty, Brent Burns and Paul Stastny. Obviously, Pacioretty won't play until after Christmas, but even Burns and Stastny make Carolina's offense more versatile, which should open up the game for their top unit of Teravainen-Aho-Jarvis. My biggest concern with Jarvis is the concussion sustained from the Jacob Trouba hit in the playoffs. The rookie told media in his exit interview that his memory was blank for up to 18 hours after the fact, and head injuries can linger. So, hopefully he's able to make a full recovery and gets through this season uninhibited.

Jarvis is a perfect fit alongside Aho and Terevainen, so as long as he stays there, he most likely bests his rookie totals of 17 goals and 23 assists. What's crazy about the Hurricanes is, despite ranking 5th in goals-for last season, they had some of the worst finishing in the NHL. Ipso facto, if the team plays the same exact way they did in '21-22, they ought to see regression, which means they could have the best offense in the league. Ergo, Jarvis and the Canes' top unit could be a top-scoring trio in '22-23.

My 2022-23 prediction for Jarvis: 27 Goals - 44 Assists - 71 Points

4. Blake Coleman, Calgary Flames

Coleman has emerged as a popular Swiss-army knife type of forward, useful in all situations, but his scoring declined last season in Calgary, quite sharply in fact. After posting 31 points in 55 games (46 point pace per 82) in '20-21 for the Lightning, he managed only 33 in 81 games for Calgary last season. As you might expect, on a dominant Flames team his underlying numbers were excellent, and it is perhaps a forgotten fact that Blake Coleman has scored 20 goals not once but twice, both times in New Jersey of all places.

I know he's almost 30, but not only is he an incredible play driver, he is also a quietly efficient distributor, and his unique blend of relentless forechecking and crafty puck-work has a profound impact on his teammates. As it stands (ergo, I'm working under the assumption that), Coleman is slotted to play beside Nazem Kadri and Andrew Mangiapane, who both play a very similar blend of hockey as Coleman. The three of them could very well end '22-23 as one of the best lines in the NHL in expected goals-for percentage (xGF%). Under Darryl Sutter's guide, the three of them will be like a pack of junkyard dogs, and I could see each eclipsing 60, maybe even 70 points. In a second-line role, he could really tear it up for Calgary this year.

- My 2022-23 prediction for Coleman: 29 Goals - 33 Assists - 62 Points

3. Ross Colton, Tampa Bay Lightning

Colton already had a small breakout year in 2021-22, more than tripling his total from the year previous. He is slated to skate on Tampa's third forward unit alongside Nick Paul and Vlad Namestnikov, but I envision him seeing a fair amount of time with Stamkos and Kucherov or Hagel and Killorn, as Jon Cooper might be forced to spread the offense around after being gutted this summer. And Colton has a positive effect on his teammates no matter where he plays in the lineup:

With 22 goals and 17 assists in '21-22, I don't know if he can quite double his total, but I think we could be looking at a 50-55 point scorer. '22-23 is a contract year for Colton as well, and if he does indeed see a line promotion, he will be a major beneficiary of Tampa's talented top-six. His versatility might bump him ahead of Alex Killorn -- who struggled mightily in the postseason -- full-time too, so there are several scenarios in which Colton jumps up the lineup, making the chances he bests last season's total quite high. He is similar to Coleman, in that he hounds pucks and turns strong forechecking into offensive opportunities at an efficient rate.

- My 2022-23 prediction for Colton: 33 Goals - 22 Assist - 55 Points

2. Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators

Chabot's significance in the NHL is no secret, as he logs a ton of minutes and has a massive role for the Senators as an alternate captain. Perhaps 'breakout' isn't wholly characteristic for Chabot, but I envision him making a serious leap points-wise in 2022-23. Pierre Dorion's acquisitions of Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat immediately gave the Senators one of the best top-six forward groups in the NHL, but the biggest beneficiary of Dorion's moves will be the team's leading ice-time holder, Thomas Chabot.

Chabot logged almost 30 minutes of ice-time per game for the Sens last season, and he is arguably the team's most reliable player. Therefore, I predict that he will continue to play a key role in the Sens' offense, which means his 38 points from '21-22 could possibly double, and I don't think it's that farfetched. After all, Roman Josi scored 96 points on an offense which ranked bottom-seven in xGF. In all likelihood, Ottawa does better than that, and Chabot will be snapping pucks to Giroux, DeBrincat, Norris, Tkachuk, and the like all season long. So, if the forwards to their jobs, Chabot is in for a massive production boost.

My 2022-23 prediction for Chabot: 18 Goals - 55 Assists - 73 Points

1. Yegor Sharangovich, New Jersey Devils

A product of Belarus, Sharangovich has proven to be an effective piece for the Devils, but still leaves a bit to be desired scoring-wise. Sharangovich scored 24 goals and 22 assists in '21-22, which is decent enough, but his underlying impacts are very solid, and he possesses a cannon for a shot. His skillset seems destined to play alongside Jack Hughes, who has emerged as one of the very best young stars the NHL has to offer. Per Daily Faceoff, the Belorussian is slated to play alongside Hughes and sophomore Dawson Mercer, but Lindy Ruff is not shy about shifting his forwards around.

The first thing I notice with Sharangovich is the lack of powerplay production. Under Mark Recchi, the entire team struggled to score with the man-advantage. With the arrival of Andrew Brunette as associate and powerplay coach, the powerplay will be better, and Sharangovich has arguably the best shot on the team. No doubt he becomes a threat on the powerplay. And 5v5, the Devils boasted a top-ten offense in expected goals-for, and regardless if he skates with Hughes, Mercer, Hischier, Bratt, or Palat, he is due for a serious bump.

Like Colton, 2022-23 is a contract year for Sharangovich, so an increased role, a new-and-improved powerplay, and remotely better puck-luck will absolutely result in added scoring. Hughes was on pace for 94 points last season, and the trio of Mercer, Hughes, and Sharangovich form a strong puck-possession unit. Hughes led the league in takeaways as a 19-year old, and Mercer finished 11th in Calder Trophy voting. Ipso facto, the more they have the puck, the more Sharangovich scores. With the Devils' talented forwards, he is poised for a sizable leap in production in 2022-23.

My 2022-23 prediction for Sharangovich: 34 Goals, 38 Assists, 72 Points

Think I missed anyone? Post your breakout candidates in the Facebook comments!

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