Oilers' strong preseason opener comes with a massive warning

Oilers fans are excited after a 5-2 win over Winnipeg, with Ryan Shea, Alex Formenton and Mathieu Joseph all making strong impressions.

Colton Dach also impressed at center, a new position for a player Edmonton has used mostly on the wing.

Shea posted 35 points in 80 games last season, going plus-30, a genuinely strong number that makes his early camp performance easy to get excited about.

But long-time Oilers observers have seen this movie before, and it rarely ends the way September suggests.

Back in 2018, right wingers Ty Rattie, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Kailer Yamamoto combined for 15 goals across five preseason games, a stretch so hot that analysts across the league started reworking their expectations for the season.

Rattie had seven goals in that stretch alone, playing alongside Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the top line, drawing comparisons to legendary passing trios of decades past.

That trio then combined for just nine total goals across the entire NHL regular season that followed. Head coach Todd McLellan lost his job 20 games in, and GM Peter Chiarelli was fired mid-winter.

Why this year's group deserves patience, not certainty

Dach posted just 13 points in 61 games last season, going minus-15, numbers that don't match the strong early camp buzz around his move to center.

Joseph posted 11 points in 51 games last season, a modest return for a player Edmonton signed specifically to add bottom-six depth this offseason.

None of this means Shea, Formenton, or Dach are destined to fade the way that 2018 trio did. Shea may genuinely be a smart, effective puck mover. Formenton may be fast enough to create real breakaway chances.

But passing one exhibition test against a Jets lineup that was missing key pieces isn't predictive on its own.

Edmonton finished 41-30-11 last season, third overall, a roster with real expectations this year under new head coach Mike Babcock.

Each of these players faces a progressively harder test as the preseason continues, then again once real games start counting in October. September goals have fooled Oilers fans before, and history says to enjoy this stretch without assuming it lasts.

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