Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs are sitting over the cap before camp even opens.
Toronto currently projects at roughly $2.75 million above the ceiling, a real problem the front office has to solve before the season starts.
That's the backdrop for a roster that looks almost completely different from a year ago.
Sergei Bobrovsky, Darren Raddysh, Nick Paul, Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons, Teddy Blueger and Brandon Duhaime all arrive as new faces.
Gone are Joseph Woll, Brandon Carlo, Nick Robertson, Simon Benoit and Mattias Maccelli, a serious reshuffling of the roster's identity.
Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz reunite in Toronto's crease after sharing one excellent season together in Florida back in 2023-24.
Bobrovsky is about to turn 38, and Stolarz has struggled to stay healthy through two seasons in Toronto, real risk attached to that plan.
Why Matthews' health decides everything else
None of the goaltending or bottom-six additions matter as much as one simple question: can Auston Matthews stay healthy?
He's played 60 games or fewer in each of the past two seasons, well short of a full slate for a player chasing another Rocket Richard.
Last season he still managed 27 goals and 53 points in that limited action, proof the talent hasn't gone anywhere when he's actually on the ice.
Darren Raddysh joins as a new power-play weapon, putting up 70 points in 73 games last season with 10 power-play goals of his own.
Add in first-overall talent Gavin McKenna entering the lineup, and there's real reason for optimism in a market that had almost none of it a year ago.
Toronto finished 32-36-14 last season, 28th overall, and closed on a brutal seven-game losing streak that summed up the whole year.
New head coach Jim Hiller now has to blend all these new pieces together with almost no margin for error in a stacked Atlantic Division.
It's hard to imagine Toronto finishing second-last in the East again. But if it does, the consequences run deeper than one bad season.
The Leafs don't hold their own first-round pick in either 2027 or 2028, real stakes attached to how quickly this roster comes together.
A healthy Matthews and a solid Bobrovsky-Stolarz tandem point toward a playoff push. Anything less, and this reshuffle looks very different in hindsight.
Will a healthy Auston Matthews be enough to get the Maple Leafs back into the playoffs?
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