Canadiens dealt a tough last-minute setback before Lightning game

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Vincent Carbonneau
April 29, 2026  (6:06 PM)

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Photo credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

Juraj Slafkovsky and Martin St. Louis carry a familiar message into Game 5: the Canadiens are being counted out again.

That is the real angle before puck drop in Tampa Bay. Montreal is back in the underdog seat, even with the series tied 2-2.

The number getting attention is 40%. That is the series chance being attached to the Canadiens right now.

The single-game price tells the same story. Montreal is sitting at 2.55 for Game 5, which makes it clear where the outside belief is landing.

But this team has already lived here once. Before Game 1, the Canadiens were given less than 30% odds to eliminate the Lightning.

Then Montreal pushed the series the other way. After taking a 2-1 lead, the Canadiens climbed to 61%.

One loss later, all that confidence from the outside disappeared again. That is why this feels familiar, not new.

The biggest hockey problem is right up front. Since Juraj Slafkovsky's hat trick in Game 1, the top line has not driven enough offense.

That puts real pressure on Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield tonight. Montreal does not need a flashy game from that group. It needs a dangerous one.

Discipline is the other issue hanging over this matchup. In Game 4, the Canadiens gave Tampa Bay 7 power plays, and that is the kind of number that can wreck a road playoff game in a hurry.

That matters even more against this opponent. The Lightning are built to drag teams into mistakes, then make them pay on special teams.

Still, the underdog tag fits this Canadiens season better than people want to admit. This is the same team that reached 106 points after very few expected that kind of year in the first place.

That is why the odds do not fully land inside Montreal's room. The Canadiens have already spent too much of this season proving numbers wrong to start shaking now.

But this is also where St. Louis needs his best players to answer. The top line cannot stay quiet, and the bench cannot keep feeding Tampa Bay easy power-play time.

The series is even. The pressure is real. And once again, the Canadiens are being told they are not likely to win.

They have heard that before. Now they need to make it look wrong again.

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Previously

Six players out as Canadiens and Lightning make last-minute lineup changes

Brady Tkachuk just changed the narrative with one major statement

Huge development for the Oilers could change the rest of the series

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