The consensus first overall pick has been dethroned in a major advanced analytic used to predict career production.
Bedard Dethroned In Important Advanced AnalyticConnor Bedard
is known as the best prospect since Connor McDavid
but he has been dethroned in a crucial advanced analytic.
The advanced analytic is question is pNHLe which predicts how many points a player will be able to put up in their prime. There are many pNHLe models but the leading one comes from Mason Black.
Here is Black's model:
Part of the way pNHLe is calculated is calculating NHLe which stands for NHL equivalence. That takes a players production in one league and converts it to what we could estimate their production as in the NHL.
Because of this, how difficult the league the prospect is playing in is taken into account. With Matvei Michkov
playing in the KHL, the widely considered 2nd best league in the world, his NHLe will require less production to reach higher equivalencies.
High Risk, High Reward
With discussion of Michkov potentially falling outside of the top 10, his production being only rivaled by Connor Bedard
, any team picking outside of the top 3 should definitely take the risk on Michkov because the reward is so high.