Leo Carlsson carries the biggest cap hit in the NHL, and the Anaheim Ducks just got their first look at the ceiling that will sit above him.
The league floated its first estimate for the 2028-29 salary cap at this week's Board of Governors meeting. The number is $127.5 million.
Agent Allan Walsh put it out on X Friday afternoon, and he took a small victory lap while he was at it. He'd been predicting a $127 million upper limit for a long time.
His answer to the doubters? "It's not my opinion, it's math." Tough to argue with a guy who missed by half a million.
Now look at Anaheim. The Ducks' top earner sits at $18,000,000 against the cap, and nobody in the league carries a heavier number.
Kirill Kaprizov is next in line in Minnesota at $17,000,000. Connor McDavid, for the record, checks in at $12,500,000 in Edmonton.
Run Carlsson's deal against the projection and it leaves $109.5 million for everybody else on the roster. That's the math Pat Verbeek signed up for.
Pat Verbeek has $40.5 million tied up in three Ducks
And the top of the payroll doesn't stop there. Cutter Gauthier carries a $13,500,000 cap hit, matching Jack Eichel's number in Vegas.
Jackson Lacombe adds $9,000,000 on the blue line. That ranks 15th among defensemen league-wide.
It's the hockey version of buying the biggest house on the street and betting your paychecks keep climbing. The cap estimate says the raises are coming, but the standings still have to cooperate.
Thursday night didn't help the optics. The Ducks got blown out 10-0 in San Jose, and none of the three big contracts dressed.
Ville Husso took the loss after stopping 13 of 19 shots. Laurent Brossoit split the night in the crease and didn't fare any better.
Preseason, sure. But Joel Quenneville gets one more tune-up Saturday in Los Angeles before the regular season opens October 2 in Vegas.
Here's where Bob lands. Paying Carlsson more than McDavid is a bad bet, and a rising ceiling only hides that decision for so long.
The ripple goes well beyond Orange County. Aleksander Barkov holds the 30th-highest cap hit in hockey at $10,000,000, and that line is about to move.
Every GM with a star heading toward an extension just lost some leverage at the table.
Walsh already has his number. Now every agent with a franchise player to sell has Anaheim's too.
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Is Leo Carlsson worth more against the cap than Connor McDavid?
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