Week 1 Fantasy Roundup
With most leagues concluding their first week on October 13, surprises abound in Fantasy Hockey. Let's dive in to see which trends will last and which are likely to be short-term.
The "Sell High" group
While most fantasy players are unwilling to part with highly ranked stars who are underperforming this early in the season, there are some guys that you can try to use as trade bait, because their value just won't get higher.
Dougie Hamilton, D, Carolina Hurricanes
A perennially underrated player, Hamilton has had a 50 point season in his career, as well as three seasons with 40+ points. But there is simply no way that he can sustain the rate of the first six games. He is ranked #1 in my league, because we use PIMs and Blocked Shots, which gives him the edge over Connor McDavid. Hamilton is averaging 23:14 TOI, compared to 19:59 for his career. If he continues to be used at this pace, diminishing returns are likely to set in.
If you happen to be in one of the 3% of Yahoo leagues where he is not owned, pick him up. If you can trade him, do it now.
Kevin Shattenkirk, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Does he look refreshed in Tampa after two horrific years in New York? Yes. Did the Rangers make the right call to buy him out? Absolutely. While Tampa has the luxury of shielding him from bad defensive matchups with dominant d-men like Hedman and McDonagh, he is going to end up exposed eventually and the legs just don't have much left. Tampa simply does not need him to run their first power play unit and his +/- rating should creep back down to the negative double digits, the story of his career.
Any Edmonton Oilers player not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl
5-0. Sure, that's the record. But the advanced stats scream anything but Oiler dominance. No. 2 on the PP at 41.2%? Not sustainable. No. 2 on the PK at 94.1%? Unreal. Zack Kassian and James Neal firing on all cylinders giving the Oilers two deadly offensive lines? Not bloody likely. Expect to see Neal inserted onto the first line as soon as Kassian goes cold...and he will. Both goalies are exceeding expectations, but should drop back to their career averages, especially Koskinen. Mike Smith is too old to carry the #1 starter role.
Diamonds in the Rough
Sammy Blais, LW/RW, St. Louis Blues
Who IS this kid? The 23-year-old former 6th round draft pick from 2014, Blais is firmly entrenched on the Blues 2nd line with Ryan O'Reilly and David Perron. A physical presence with 26 hits in 5 games, he's also had time to put up 5 points. The downside is that he doesn't shoot much (8 shots so far) but he is doing the dirty work on a very productive line and should see a bunch of secondary assists as a result. Double wing eligibility doesn't hurt and he is only owned in 39% of Yahoo leagues.
Ryan Dzingel, LW/RW, Carolina Hurricanes
Only owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues, Dzingel was a big offseason acquisition for the Canes. Last year's plucky underdogs are developing depth at forward with Dzingel and Svechnikov. He is not over-performing, he is simply showing what he can do on a good team, after his years in Ottawa.
Victor Olofsson, LW/RW, Buffalo Sabres
Are you seeing a pattern with two position eligibility? I've always liked drafting those type of guys, so the lineup can be filled without good players having to sit out. Fantasy players have caught glimpses of Olofsson and he is now owned in 64% of Yahoo leagues. All four of his goals have come on the power play. The 7th round pick from 2014 is blossoming into a heck of a specialist and is also getting first line minutes alongside Jack Eichel.
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