The Sergei Bobrovsky signing that doesn't look like a John Chayka move

The Maple Leafs lost their sixth straight Saturday night, and Sergei Bobrovsky's rough start is the story they can't avoid.

Toronto sits 26th in the NHL at 8-12-2 after a 1-0 loss to the Oilers. The 38-year-old Bobrovsky, signed in July, is the first name in any conversation about what went wrong.

Jim Hiller's vague answer on the Stolarz start Saturday morning already hinted at a debate in the Leafs' crease. Anthony Stolarz made 22 saves on 23 shots and still took the loss, because Devon Levi stopped all 19 shots he faced.

The warning signs were there before Toronto signed him. Bobrovsky finished last season with the Panthers at an .877 save percentage and allowed 17.6 goals above expected. Only Kevin Lankinen, Leevi Merilainen and Jordan Binnington were worse by that measure.

This season hasn't gone better. He's at .881 and 3.6 goals above expected, and he has allowed three or more goals in 12 of his 13 starts.

Toronto's record in his starts is 3-8-2. Two of the worst nights were the 5-4 loss to the Kraken, when he allowed five goals on 17 shots, and the 6-3 loss to the Avalanche, when five went in on 27.

The defense isn't blameless. The five-on-five play in front of him has been mediocre, and John Chayka's push on the trade market is aimed at that blue line, per Frank Seravalli. But it hasn't been bad enough to excuse those numbers.

Should Anthony Stolarz take over as the Leafs' No. 1?

Yes, and the sooner the better. Stolarz was 5-3-0 through eight games before Saturday's loss, and he's at 0.2 goals above expected. He stops what he should stop, which Bobrovsky hasn't done.

The contract makes this awkward. Bobrovsky carries a $7 million cap hit through 2028-29, and the Leafs are two months into it with a team that is 8th in the Atlantic. Sitting him more often is the only move available that costs nothing.

The alternative was in-house. Joseph Woll finished last season at .899, and he's at .902 with the Flyers, saving 4.8 goals above expected. Dennis Hildeby posted a .914 last season and is now backing up Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa. Neither is the problem anywhere.

An analytics-minded GM like Chayka giving a 37-year-old on the decline a three-year deal is hard to square with how he usually builds a roster. Whoever pushed for it, the Leafs are paying for it now.

Toronto plays at Chicago on Tuesday, November 17, and Hiller has to pick a starter with the streak at six.

This article was written with the help of artificial intelligence, based on public reports and official sources.

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