Kirill Marchenko is already leaving Toronto in this blockbuster Nikita Kucherov trade proposal

A mock trade from IceMetrix sends Kirill Marchenko out of Toronto in a blockbuster Maple Leafs offer for Nikita Kucherov.

It's only a mock, and nothing suggests either team has talked. But the package is loud: Tampa Bay gets Marchenko, Ben Danford, Dakota Joshua and a 2027 first-round pick, and Toronto gets Kucherov.

Marchenko is the headline piece going the other way, and he's not even playing. He's listed on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, expected to be out until at least Nov. 17. Before that, he had 6 goals and 14 points in 14 games, and he's one of the Leafs' most productive forwards. We covered Marchenko among four Leafs out week-to-week last month.

Kucherov is the reason the idea has legs. He has 20 points in 15 games for a Lightning team that sits 10-3-2, seventh in the NHL and third in the Atlantic.

Thursday night he was held without a point against Chicago, though he put three shots on goal in a 4-1 win. Tampa is 8-0-0 at home. Teams in that spot don't usually shop the best player on the roster.

Danford and Joshua round out the offer. Danford, 20, was the 31st pick in 2024 and has yet to play an NHL game. Joshua has two games played this season and no points.

IceMetrix's mock gives Toronto the star and asks it to part with a forward, a prospect, a depth center and a first.

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Why Tampa Bay says no and Toronto should too

From the Lightning's side, this doesn't work. Jon Cooper's club is winning, and a 33-year-old with 1143 career points is the reason it keeps winning. Marchenko is hurt, Danford is unproven and Joshua is a bottom-six piece. A first-round pick doesn't change that math for a contender.

For Toronto, the case is just as shaky. The Leafs are 8-7-2, 17th in the NHL, and lost 2-3 to Utah on Tuesday. Giving up a scorer, a top prospect and a first for a player on an expiring deal looks like a bad trade, and John Chayka would be selling off three assets to chase a fix that one player can't deliver.

There's a hockey quirk too. Marchenko and Kucherov both wear No. 86, so someone would be changing numbers before the trade even got to the ice.

The real answer comes on the ice. Tampa Bay visits Minnesota on Saturday, and the Leafs host Montreal the same day, still without Marchenko.

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