Elliotte Friedman dropped a salary cap bombshell on Spittin' Chiclets on October 26, and the number is worth talking about now.
The NHL insider said the cap is going up to $127.5 million next year. That is the headline, but the second half of his answer is the part GMs and agents will be chewing on.
Friedman said the league "really believes it's gonna flatten out at some point." He repeated himself for emphasis: "they do." Then he turned to the other side of the table.
"The Player's Association feels differently," Friedman said. "We'll see who's right."
That is a rare thing to hear in public. The league and the union are looking at the same number and reading two different futures.
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The $127.5 million figure is the new baseline for every contract negotiation, every trade discussion and every free agent pitch heading into next year. Teams will build around it whether they trust it or not.
Why the cap debate matters for every team
The league's view is that the climb will stop. If that's true, a team that hands out a long contract at today's numbers could be paying for it in a flat environment. The cap would stop growing while the deal keeps running.
The union's view is the opposite. If the players are right, the ceiling keeps rising, and a big contract signed now looks smarter every summer.
Friedman did not pick a side, and he didn't pretend to know. His "we'll see who's right" is an honest read of a disagreement nobody can settle yet.
Here's the opinion. Teams that bet on the league's flattening theory are making a risky call. If the cap stops climbing, they're the ones who planned for it. If it keeps rising, they gave up flexibility they didn't need to give up. Every front office has to choose which version it believes.
For a contender, the extra room next year helps with roster building and trade math. For a team tight against the ceiling, it's a bit of breathing room, but only if the front office doesn't spend it all in July.
Nothing in Friedman's comments settles who is right, and it won't be settled soon. The $127.5 million number is the one to watch as the trade market opens up and teams start planning for next year's cap.
Is the NHL right that the salary cap will flatten out soon?
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