Dylan Larkin's trade market heats up with new contenders in the mix

Dylan Larkin wants out of Detroit, and the Dallas Stars have reportedly entered the conversation, according to Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast.

Larkin's preferred destinations are Florida, Vegas, and Minnesota, but Friedman noted Tuesday that Tampa and Dallas had also surfaced as teams in the mix.

David Pagnotta added that Larkin appears open beyond his top three, which makes this more than just a rumour.

The Stars finished 50-20-12 this season, third overall in the league, 112 points, a plus-52 goal differential.

They are a genuine contender. That part makes sense. The roster makes sense. The timing makes sense.

The money does not.

Replacing Robertson with Larkin: a cap trap hiding in plain sight

Mikko Rantanen is already carrying a $12-million cap hit. Tyler Seguin is at $9.85 million and barely played this year, appearing in just 17 points worth of production across a limited schedule.

Jason Robertson posted 96 points and 45 goals this season on a $7.75-million deal. That is borderline robbery for Jim Nill, and Robertson needs a new contract.

Larkin's cap hit is $8.7 million through 2031. That is not a problem by itself. But you cannot carry Rantanen, a new Robertson deal, Larkin, Wyatt Johnston at $8.4 million, and Miro Heiskanen at $8.45 million on the same roster without gutting the depth below them.

The most likely scenario floated is sending Robertson's rights to Detroit in a Larkin swap. Think about what that actually means.

You are trading 96 regular season points for a player who had 67 in 74 games this year and a -3 rating over his last 10 games. That is not an upgrade. That is a cap-wash lateral move dressed up as a blockbuster.

Roope Hintz is also at $8.45 million. He went 44 points in 53 games and is under contract. Dallas already has a logjam down the middle with Johnston, Hintz, Duchene, Steel, and Seguin all capable of playing centre.

Larkin would not even solve a clear hole. He would just push a better-value piece out the door.

Friedman and Pagnotta are credible voices, and the Stars clearly have the standing to compete for a player like this.

But Glen Gulutzan's roster is built around balance and depth scoring. Adding an $8.7-million centre while losing Robertson is like trading your best engine for a shinier hood ornament.

Detroit's Steve Yzerman gave Larkin all the leverage here by signing him through 2031 with full trade control. Now the Wings will use that leverage to vacuum up futures.

The Stars have Mavrik Bourque, Arttu Hyry, and other RFAs needing deals this summer on top of the Robertson situation.

None of this math closes cleanly. And that is before you even ask whether Larkin, who averaged 34 goals and 67 points this season, is actually better than what Dallas already has at the position.

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